TAMPA, Fla. -- You may have heard over the last day or two that Subtropical development is possible to the east of Florida this weekend. Well, first, let me get this out of the way…this is NOT something we need to be at all concerned with.

What You Need To Know


  • Stalled front south of Florida

  • Possible subtropical development east of Florida this weekend

  • System nothing to be concerned about

A subtropical system is basically a system that has some tropical characteristics. In other words, part of the “core” of the system has warm features. Winter storm systems and other low pressure areas are usually “cold core” or have fronts associated with them, making them non-tropical. In the case of a subtropical storm, they have both. Some subtropical systems can have more warm than cold, and others can have more cold than warm.

Since 1968, subtropical storms have, at least been classified, as part of the tropical season. From 1968 to 2001, they were simply given numbers….Subtropical Depression #1, or Subtropical Storm #2, etc…

In 2002, the National Hurricane Center decided to name them. Since 2002, on average there have been between 1 and 3 subtropical named systems each year. An interesting tidbit for Florida hurricane climatology is that in 1992, Hurricane Andrew was the first named storm. But, earlier in the year, there was a subtropical system called subtropical storm #1. Had that been given a name, then one of the most devastating natural disasters in US history, category 5 hurricane Andrew, would have been called Hurricane Bonnie.

Subtropical systems, due to their colder core characteristics are fairly common in early or late parts of the hurricane season. Many years have seen subtropical development during the month of May.

This year may see that as well. We have been watching a stalled front south of Florida for a few days. A pair of upper level disturbances may link up this weekend just to the southeast of Florida. As that system moves into the Atlantic, some subtropical development is expected.

Whether or not it becomes a subtropical depression or a subtropical storm is uncertain at this point. Either way, any development will be minor and it will have no adverse effects on the state of Florida. In fact, as it pulls away in the Atlantic, it will drag more dry air over our area.

If it ends up reaching winds of 39 mph, it will get a name. The first name on the 2020 Atlantic Basin Hurricane List is Arthur.