Subtropical Storm Alberto remains disorganized near the Yucatan Peninsula Friday evening, but is still on track to intensify and impact the northern Gulf coast and parts of Florida.

The latest advisory has Alberto with winds of 40 mph. Alberto is approximately 180 miles south-southwest from the western tip of Cuba.

The subtropical storm is meandering to the east at 5 mph. The minimum pressure is 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches are now in effect for parts of the Yucatan, western Cuba and the northern Gulf coast. This includes the western Florida Panhandle, the Alabama and Mississippi coastline and metro New Orleans.

A Storm Surge Watch is also posted for the northern Gulf coast region.

The system developed Friday morning near the northwestern Caribbean Sea. A sub-tropical storm means the center of circulation is exposed and the rain and thunderstorms are pushed away from the center. The highest winds are also currently away from the center.

Alberto will begin to turn northward overnight and will enter the Gulf of Mexico late Saturday.

The system is expect to intensify during the weekend and will likely consolidate into a tropical storm at some point on Sunday.

Current indications show Alberto will likely make landfall between New Orleans and the western Panhandle Monday afternoon or evening. It will likely be a strong tropical storm or possibly a minimal hurricane at that time as it taps into the warmer Gulf waters.

Alberto is anticipated to be a large system. It will dump significant amounts of rain across parts of the Yucatan and Cuba, with 10-15 inches possible.

Tropical-storm force winds will be possible in western Cuba and in the northern Gulf coast area where watches are posted. 2-4 feet of storm surge is also possible as Alberto nears landfall along the northern Gulf coast, including the Florida Panhandle.

For Central Florida, the biggest threat will be heavy rainfall. An additional 1-4 inches of rain will be possible, which could result in minor flooding. A Flood Watch will be in effect for much of the holiday weekend.

Winds will also crank up over the 3 day weekend, but tropical-storm force winds will stay well to our west. The winds will create rip current dangers and hazardous boating conditions.

If you’re traveling for the holiday, the worst weather will be in South Florida (where they will deal if even more rain) and the Florida Panhandle (where winds and storm surge will be a concern).

Alberto is the first named storm in the Atlantic in 2018. Hurricane season in the Atlantic basin officially begins on June 1.


INTERACTIVE STORM TRACKER