With less than a week before Election Day, Gov. Rick Scott and former Gov. Charlie Crist remain locked in a dead heat in the race to become Florida’s governor.

According to a new exclusive Bay News 9/Tampa Bay Times/UF Graham Center poll, Scott and Crist each drew support from 36 percent of the likely voters who responded to the poll.  Libertarian challenger Adrian Wyllie received 6 percent of the poll.

The state-wide poll surveyed 850 likely Florida voters and asked them who they would vote for if the election were held that day.

Support for each candidate broke down along party lines, with 66 percent of surveyed Democrats saying they would vote for Crist and 70 percent of Republicans saying they planned to cast their ballots for Scott.

Bay News 9 Republican analyst Chris Ingram said he's not surprised by the results.

"This has been a very close race," he said. "All the polling coming into this election and the last few weeks, we haven't seen any real big bumps for either one of the candidates, so I'm not surprised."

One complicating factor in the poll is that one out of every five people polled did not answer the question.  Seven percent of respondents didn’t answer because they said they didn’t know, but 13 percent of those polled simply refused to answer the question.

Pollsters say the high number of refusals could be due to early voting, which has been taking place since last Monday.

That's an assessment Ingram said he agrees with.

"Some of that might have to do with folks who've actually already voted, either they've early voted or voted by mail, and their reluctance to say who they actually voted for," he said. "Basically if you've already acknowledged that you've voted and you say to a hypothetical question 'Who would you vote for?' you're basically telling who you did vote for, and I think people have a reluctance to say who they voted for in a lot of cases."

As a result, the poll results were recalculated without the responses from people who refused to disclose who they supported. The recalculated numbers once again found the two leading candidates drawing nearly equal amounts of support from voters. Crist has a slight edge, with 42 percent saying they supported him to Scott’s 41 percent. However, Crist’s 1-percent edge falls well within the poll’s margin of error of 3.1 percent.

The results of this latest poll are in line with another poll, the results of which were published earlier this month.  In that poll, Scott and Crist each received support from 40 percent of the respondents.

Early voting has also played a big role in this campaign season, with both gubernatorial candidates rallying hard for early votes from their supporters. In the past, early voting has traditionally favored Republicans, but the poll found that this election has seen more Democrats taking advantage of early voting.

According to the poll, 39 percent of the respondents who had already voted said they voted for Crist, while 34 percent of the respondents said they cast their ballot for Scott. Five percent said they voted for Wyllie.

Despite the campaigns' emphasis on early voting, Ingram said he believes the voters who wait until Election Day to cast their ballots will play a big role in the outcome of the election.

"The early voting numbers are trending Rick Scott's way, but Charlie is certainly making ground in that area, bBut we can't discount what happens on Election Day, with voters who actually turn out and go to their precinct polling place," he said. "Those voters are very important."

Democratic analyst Ana Cruz agreed, saying the voters who turn out on Election Day could be key to victory for Crist.

"These numbers are no different from what we've seen in the last month. It's going to come down to turnout, in the field, on Election Day," Cruz said. "It's up to the Democrats to get out those voters who have not already voted by absentee ballot or early vote."

In this question, as with the previous question, a lot of respondents refused to answer the question.  Eighteen percent of the respondents who had already voted refused to tell the pollster who they had cast their ballot for.

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Poll Index

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Poll Results: If the election for governor were being held today, for whom did/would you vote?

 

1. All Voters

  CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know Refused Answer
ALL 36% 36% 6% 0% 1% 7% 13%
PARTY CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know Refused Answer
Democrats 66% 8% 3% . 1% 8% 14%
Republicans 7% 70% 5% 0% 1% 5% 12%
Other 50% . 33% . . 17% .
Independents 34% 28% 12% . 2% 9% 14%
MEDIA MARKET CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know Refused Answer
Fort Myers 32% 39% 8% . . 5% 15%
Jacksonville 29% 44% 3% . 1% 9% 14%
Miami 49% 26% 4% . . 11% 11%
Orlando 34% 42% 4% . 2% 6% 11%
Other 36% 37% 5% . 2% 5% 14%
Pensacola 22% 51% 2% . 2% 14% 8%
Tampa Bay 41% 31% 8% . 1% 3% 16%
West Palm Beach 31% 28% 14% 1% 3% 10% 12%
RACE CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know Refused Answer
Other 38% 21% 10% . 2% 9% 21%
Black 64% 5% 1% . . 7% 23%
White 32% 42% 6% 0% 2% 7% 11%
HISPANIC CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know Refused Answer
No 36% 37% 6% 0% 2% 7% 13%
Yes 41% 33% 4% . 1% 7% 14%
Don't Know 28% . . . . 28% 43%
Refused Answer . . 17% . . 29% 54%
GEOGRAPHIC AREA CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know Refused Answer
South 40% 31% 8% 0% 1% 6% 14%
North 33% 42% 4% . 2% 7% 12%
Don't Know/Refused 24% 9% 8% . 9% 25% 26%
AGE GROUP CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know Refused Answer
18–24 46% 16% 15% . . 12% 11%
25–34 35% 33% 11% . 4% 7% 10%
35–44 49% 31% 7% . 1% 6% 6%
45–59 34% 39% 4% . 1% 5% 17%
60+ 34% 38% 4% 0% 1% 8% 14%
AGE GROUP II CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know Refused Answer
18–60 39% 34% 7% 0% 2% 6% 12%
61+ 33% 39% 4% . 1% 8% 15%
SEX CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know Refused Answer
Female 38% 34% 4% 0% 2% 9% 13%
Male 35% 38% 8% . 1% 5% 13%
VOTING METHOD CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know Refused Answer
Plan to Vote 36% 38% 6% . 1% 9% 10%
Absentee Ballot 36% 36% 6% . 2% 2% 18%
Early Voting 45% 28% 4% 1% 2% 1% 19%
Don't Know 23% 13% 13% . 6% 29% 15%
Refused Answer 32% . 32% . . . 37%

 

2. Asked only of those who already voted

  CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know Refused Answer
ALL 39% 34% 5% 0% 2% 2% 18%
PARTY CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know Refused Answer
Democrats 70% 7% 1% . 1% 4% 17%
Republicans 9% 68% 3% 1% 2% 1% 16%
Other 50% . 50% . . . .
Independents 35% 18% 18% . 3% . 26%
MEDIA MARKET CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know Refused Answer
Fort Myers 35% 39% 3% . . . 22%
Jacksonville 30% 41% . . . 4% 25%
Miami 52% 24% . . . 5% 18%
Orlando 41% 40% 2% . 5% 1% 11%
Other 41% 27% 9% . . 6% 17%
Pensacola 27% 73% . . . . .
Tampa Bay 40% 30% 10% . 1% . 19%
West Palm Beach 20% 30% 10% 5% 5% . 30%
RACE CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know Refused Answer
Other 41% 19% 8% . . 6% 27%
Black 64% . . . . 4% 32%
White 36% 40% 5% 0% 2% 1% 16%
HISPANIC CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know Refused Answer
No 39% 35% 5% 0% 2% 1% 18%
Yes 37% 32% 5% . . 7% 18%
Don't Know 100% . . . . . .
Refused Answer . . 43% . . . 57%
GEOGRAPHIC AREA CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know Refused Answer
South 39% 31% 6% 1% 1% 1% 21%
North 39% 40% 3% . 2% 3% 14%
Don't Know/Refused 48% . 24% . 28% . .
AGE GROUP CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know Refused Answer
18–24 32% 28% 11% . . 7% 22%
25–34 40% 15% 13% . 4% 4% 24%
35–44 52% 35% 10% . . . 4%
45–59 32% 38% 4% . 2% . 24%
60+ 40% 35% 4% 1% 2% 2% 17%
AGE GROUP II CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know Refused Answer
18–60 38% 32% 8% 1% 2% 1% 18%
61+ 39% 36% 3% . 2% 2% 18%
SEX CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know Refused Answer
Female 41% 31% 6% 1% 2% 2% 18%
Male 36% 38% 4% . 2% 2% 18%
VOTING METHOD CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know Refused Answer
Absentee Ballot 37% 36% 5% . 2% 2% 18%
Early Voting 45% 28% 4% 1% 2% 1% 19%
Refused Answer . . 100% . . . .

 

3. Asked of those who haven't voted, but plan to vote
  CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know Refused Answer
ALL 35% 37% 6% 0% 1% 10% 10%
PARTY CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know Refused Answer
Democrats 63% 9% 4% . 1% 11% 13%
Republicans 6% 71% 6% 1% 1% 7% 9%
Other 50% . 25% . . 25% .
Independents 34% 32% 10% . 2% 12% 9%
MEDIA MARKET CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know Refused Answer
Fort Myers 28% 40% 13% . . 11% 7%
Jacksonville 29% 45% 4% . 1% 10% 10%
Miami 47% 27% 5% . . 13% 8%
Orlando 30% 44% 5% . 1% 9% 11%
Other 34% 42% 3% . 2% 5% 13%
Pensacola 22% 46% 3% . 3% 17% 10%
Tampa Bay 42% 32% 6% . 1% 6% 14%
West Palm Beach 35% 27% 15% 5% 3% 13% 6%
RACE CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know Refused Answer
Other 36% 22% 12% . 3% 11% 17%
Black 64% 6% 1% . . 9% 20%
White 30% 44% 7% 0% 1% 10% 8%
HISPANIC CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know Refused Answer
No 35% 38% 7% 0% 1% 10% 10%
Yes 43% 34% 4% . 1% 6% 12%
Don't Know . . . . . 40% 60%
Refused Answer . . . . . 48% 52%
GEOGRAPHIC AREA CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know Refused Answer
South 41% 31% 8% 1% 1% 9% 9%
North 30% 44% 4% . 2% 10% 11%
Don't Know/Refused 12% 13% . . . 37% 38%
AGE GROUP CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know Refused Answer
18–24 54% 10% 17% . . 15% 4%
25–34 34% 38% 11% . 4% 7% 6%
35–44 48% 30% 7% . 1% 7% 7%
45–59 35% 39% 5% . 1% 7% 14%
60+ 29% 41% 5% 1% 1% 13% 12%
AGE GROUP II CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know Refused Answer
18–60 39% 35% 7% 1% 2% 8% 10%
61+ 29% 41% 5% . 1% 13% 12%
SEX CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know Refused Answer
Female 36% 36% 3% 1% 1% 13% 11%
Male 35% 38% 10% . 1% 6% 10%
VOTING METHOD CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know Refused Answer
Plan to Vote 36% 38% 6% . 1% 9% 10%
Absentee Ballot . . 100% 1% . . .
Don't Know 23% 13% 13% . 6% 29% 15%
Refused Answer 46% . .   . . 54%

 

4. All voters, with refusals removed

  CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know
ALL 42% 41% 7% 0% 2% 8%
PARTY CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know
Democrats 77% 9% 3% . 2% 9%
Republicans 8% 79% 6% 0% 1% 5%
Other 50% . 33% . . 17%
Independents 40% 33% 14% . 3% 11%
MEDIA MARKET CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know
Fort Myers 38% 47% 9% . . 6%
Jacksonville 34% 51% 4% . 1% 10%
Miami 54% 29% 4% . . 12%
Orlando 38% 48% 4% . 3% 7%
Other 42% 44% 6% . 2% 6%
Pensacola 24% 55% 3% . 3% 15%
Tampa Bay 49% 37% 9% . 1% 4%
West Palm Beach 36% 32% 16% 1% 4% 11%
RACE CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know
Other 47% 26% 13% . 3% 11%
Black 83% 6% 1% . . 10%
White 36% 47% 7% 0% 2% 8%
HISPANIC CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know
No 41% 42% 7% 0% 2% 8%
Yes 48% 39% 5% . 1% 8%
Don't Know 50% . . . . 50%
Refused Answer . . 37% . . 63%
GEOGRAPHIC AREA CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know
AGE GROUP CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know
AGE GROUP II CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know
SEX CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know
VOTING METHOD CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know
South 46% 36% 9% 0% 1% 7%
North 37% 48% 4% . 2% 8%
Don't Know/Refused 32% 12% 11% . 12% 33%
18–24 52% 18% 16% . . 14%
25–34 39% 37% 12% . 5% 7%
35–44 52% 33% 8% . 1% 6%
45–59 41% 46% 5% . 1% 6%
60+ 39% 44% 5% 0% 1% 9%
18–60 44% 39% 8% 0% 2% 7%
61+ 39% 45% 5% . 1% 9%
Female 43% 39% 5% 0% 2% 10%
Male 40% 44% 9% . 2% 5%
Plan to Vote 40% 42% 7% . 1% 10%
Absentee Ballot 44% 44% 7% . 2% 3%
Early Voting 55% 35% 5% 2% 2% 1%
Don't Know 27% 16% 16% . 7% 34%
Refused 50% . 50% . . .

 

5. Those who already voted, with refusals removed
  CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know
ALL 47% 42% 6% 0% 2% 2%
PARTY CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know
Democrats 84% 9% 2% . 2% 4%
Republicans 11% 81% 4% 1% 2% 1%
Other 50% . 50% . . .
Independents 48% 24% 24% . 4% .
MEDIA MARKET CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know
Fort Myers 45% 51% 4% . . .
Jacksonville 40% 55% . . . 5%
Miami 64% 30% . . . 7%
Orlando 46% 45% 2% . 6% 2%
Other 49% 32% 11% . . 8%
Pensacola 27% 73% . . . .
Tampa Bay 49% 37% 12% . 1% .
West Palm Beach 29% 43% 15% 7% 7% .
RACE CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know
Other 56% 26% 10% . . 8%
Black 95% . . . . 5%
White 42% 47% 6% 0% 3% 1%
HISPANIC CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know
No 48% 42% 6% 0% 2% 2%
Yes 45% 39% 6% . . 9%
Don't Know 100% . . . . .
Refused Answer . . 100% . . .
GEOGRAPHIC AREA CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know
South 49% 39% 8% 1% 1% 1%
North 45% 46% 3% . 2% 3%
Don't Know/Refused 48% . 24% . 28% .
AGE GROUP CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know
18–24 41% 36% 14% . . 9%
25–34 52% 19% 17% . 6% 6%
35–44 54% 36% 10% . . .
45–59 42% 50% 5% . 3% .
60+ 48% 42% 4% 1% 2% 3%
AGE GROUP II CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know
18–60 47% 39% 9% 1% 2% 2%
61+ 48% 44% 4% . 2% 3%
SEX CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know
Female 50% 38% 7% 1% 2% 2%
Male 44% 46% 5% . 2% 3%
VOTING METHOD CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Someone Else Neither/Not Voting Don't Know
Absentee Ballot 45% 44% 6% . 2% 3%
Early Voting 55% 35% 5% 2% 2% 1%
Refused . . 100% . . .

 

6. Those who haven't voted yet, with refusals removed
  CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Neither/Not Voting Don't Know
ALL 39% 41% 7% 1% 11%
PARTY CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Neither/Not Voting Don't Know
Democrats 73% 10% 4% 1% 12%
Republicans 6% 78% 7% 1% 8%
Other 50% . 25% . 25%
Independents 38% 35% 11% 2% 14%
MEDIA MARKET CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Neither/Not Voting Don't Know
Fort Myers 31% 43% 14% . 12%
Jacksonville 32% 50% 5% 1% 11%
Miami 51% 29% 6% . 14%
Orlando 34% 49% 6% 1% 10%
Other 39% 49% 4% 3% 5%
Pensacola 24% 51% 3% 3% 19%
Tampa Bay 49% 37% 7% 1% 7%
West Palm Beach 37% 29% 16% 3% 14%
RACE CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Neither/Not Voting Don't Know
Other 43% 26% 14% 4% 13%
Black 80% 8% 2% . 11%
White 33% 48% 7% 1% 11%
HISPANIC CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Neither/Not Voting Don't Know
No 38% 42% 8% 1% 11%
Yes 49% 38% 4% 2% 7%
Don't Know . . . . 100%
Refused Answer . . . . 100%
GEOGRAPHIC AREA CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Neither/Not Voting Don't Know
South 45% 34% 9% 1% 10%
North 34% 49% 5% 2% 11%
Don't Know/Refused 19% 22% . . 59%
AGE GROUP CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Neither/Not Voting Don't Know
18–24 57% 10% 18% . .
25–34 36% 40% 11% 4% 4%
35–44 51% 32% 7% 1% 1%
45–59 40% 45% 5% 1% 1%
60+ 33% 46% 5% 1% 1%
AGE GROUP II CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Neither/Not Voting Don't Know
18–60 43% 38% 8% 2% 2%
61+ 33% 46% 6% 1% 1%
SEX CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Neither/Not Voting Don't Know
Female 40% 40% 4% 2% 2%
Male 39% 42% 11% 1% 1%
VOTING METHOD CRIST SCOTT WYLLIE Neither/Not Voting Don't Know
Plan to Vote 40% 42% 7% 1% 1%
Absentee Ballot . . 100% . .
Early Voting 27% 16% 16% 7% 7%
Don't Know 100% . . . .

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About the Poll

The telephone survey of 850 likely Florida voters was conducted Oct. 24–28 for News 13, Bay News 9 and the Tampa Bay Times by the University of Florida's Bob Graham Center for Public Service and Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

The poll, which included respondents using land lines and cell phones, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Results were weighted by age, party registration and media market, thus allowing the results to mirror the distribution in the Florida Voter File.

NOTE: Figures may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.