EXCLUSIVE POLL: Sink leads Jolly, voters less concerned about Obamacare

Next month, Pinellas County voters within Congressional District 13 will decide who they want to replace the late C.W. Bill Young in Congress.

According to the results of a new Bay News 9/Tampa Bay Times/ WUSF Public Media exclusive poll, the front runner could be Democrat Alex Sink, the former Florida chief financial officer and 2010 gubernatorial candidate.

Sink has a seven point lead over Republican David Jolly, a former aide and general council of Young, according to the poll results.

When asked if the election was held today which candidate would they vote for, or who are they learning toward; 42 percent said Sink, 35 percent said Jolly, and 4 percent said Libertarian candidate Lucas Overby. About 14 percent of those surveyed said they were undecided.

"I think what's important to note here is that Alex Sink is winning more Republicans than David Jolly is winning Democrats," said Ana Cruz, (D) Bay News 9 Political Analyst. "And she's also winning seven more points of Independents so that's really the key fact here that I think will be her path to victory."

"Maybe a little bit of surprise, I think this is actually a closer race than the poll might reflect," said Chris Ingram, (R) Bay News 9 Political Analyst. "And if you're David Jolly, whom I support, you want to be in the lead and not trailing at this point."

Among those who answered undecided, 81 percent said they're not leaning toward a particular candidate.

If the election for Congressional District 13 were held today, which of these candidates would you vote for?

Also, according to the poll results, the Affordable Care Act, often called Obamacare, doesn’t seem to be a huge factor in the race.

When asked how important is the Obamacare issue in their decision on who to vote for in the Congressional District 13 race; 39 percent of voters said it was 'very important', 33 percent said 'somewhat important' and 26 percent said 'not at all important.'

How important is the Obamacare issue in your decision on who to vote for in the Congressional District 13 race?  

The majority of those polled who support Obamacare support Sink, the same goes for the majority of those who oppose Obamacare, support Jolly.

Do you support or oppose the Affordable Care Act, often called Obamacare?

**less than one-half of one percent

Support of Obamacare by candidate preference

During A Conversation with the Candidates debate February 4, Jolly said he would repeal Obamacare, while Sink, acknowledging that it has “not been perfect,” said she would work within it to make it better.

According to Bay News 9’s political consultants, voters are more concerned with other issues.

"I also feel that voters in that district are more concerned with other pressing issues," Cruz said. "Flood insurance is one key issue that that area is paying closely attention to, education and jobs and the economy."

"This election really is a referendum on the President," Ingram said. “Do you support Obamacare and Obama and bigger government? Or do you support a smaller government and more conservative values and getting our economy back on track? If you do the latter, you’re going to support Jolly, the former, you’re gonna support Alex Sink.”

District 13 extends from south Pinellas to Dunedin, minus parts of southern and downtown St. Petersburg.

Young served in Congress for more than 40 years until his death in October and was an icon in the area.

The telephone survey of 603 registered voters was conducted February 4-9 for Bay News 9, The Tampa Bay Times,  and WUSF Public Media. The poll was done Braun Research, a national polling firm based in Princeton, NJ. The margin of error among voters is 4.0 percentage points.