Get those umbrellas out as the Bay area may see some rain and storms heading into Monday.
- Rain chances continue
- Weak front drops into the area
- Heavy rain possible
A large upper air trough in the Eastern US has pushed a strong front for late July into North Florida and the front should continue to push southward into Central Florida by midday Monday.
Ahead of the front, rich tropical moisture is producing numerous showers and thunderstorms, some heavy, that should continue tonight. Rain cloud cause minor flooding at times but the cells are moving along pretty well so there shouldn't be any major problems.
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The good chance of rain and thunderstorms will continue into Monday morning, again some could be strong. The rain activity should move south throughout the day as the front stalls in the Tampa Bay area. Drier air should work into our Northern Counties by afternoon. Even though the best chance of thunderstorms should be in the morning, a few heavy thunderstorms could still form in the afternoon with daytime heating, a sea breeze, and the front in the area.
As the front continues to move slowly south and dissipate, the rain chances look to be down on Tuesday as some drier air tries to filter in with NE winds. However, a sea breeze coudl still initiate thunderstorms in the afternoon.
The tropical moisture looks to surge back into the area on Wednesday so rain chances go back up with a good chance of rain and thunderstorms.
By Thursday and Friday, it looks to be a more typical summer pattern of afternoon thunderstorms on the sea breeze. Drier air will limit the coverage on Thursday but our move typical 50 percent chance for August days looks to return on Friday and into next weekend.
A small non-tropical low pressure area located about 120 miles west of Tampa, Florida, is producing an area of thunderstorm activity as it drifts southeastward.
This system will approach the West-Central Florida Coast on Monday before it moves inland over the Florida peninsula and into the western Atlantic by Wednesday. Regardless of development, the low is expected to enhance locally heavy rainfall across portions of central and northeastern Florida during the next couple of days.
There is also a high risk of rip currents along the beaches through Monday evening.
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