ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — 11 p.m. update:
Dry air combined with wind shear coming from the west has kept Tropical Storm Isaias disorganized and weak. The heaviest rain and strongest winds have stayed offshore east of Florida because of that wind shear.
Occasional rain bands with some brief gusts will come into the Florida east coast from time to time overnight into early Monday morning, but we’re not expecting any major change to what we’re already seeing (most of the gusts we’ve seen so far have been in the 30s to 40s mph range between Vero Beach and Cape Canaveral).
Isaias will continue moving north, paralleling Florida and then make a turn to the north/northeast Monday afternoon and start increasing speed.
It will head for the Carolinas where the landfall is likely between Georgetown, SC and Wilmington, NC. We don’t expect Isaias to make any massive intensification (will either be a TS or low end Cat 1 hurricane), but because it will have a faster forward speed they can expect some gusty winds, especially in the coastal regions of the Carolinas.
This landfall will take place late Monday night into early Tuesday morning.
So there could be some minor, brief problems such as beach erosion, brief storm surge on the immediate beach, and minor power outages (but keep in mind this is nothing like the Irma and Dorian storms).
This will remain a small storm compared to the large hurricanes we’ve seen the past few years.
With the storm moving fast through North Carolina, there won’t be a threat of lingering flooding rains or lingering storm surge.
Instead, this will be a brief passing and then gone by Tuesday night.
Make sure to watch our Tropical Updates each hour at :49
SUMMARY OF 11 P.M. SUNDAY
ABOUT 50 MI...E OF CAPE CANAVERAL, FLORIDA
ABOUT 365 MI... S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: NONE
CHANGES WITH 5 PM ADVISORY
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina.
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect from South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina.
The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina.
The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended northward to Watch Hill Rhode Island, including the Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac River, Delaware Bay, Long Island and Long Island Sound.
The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Sebastian Inlet Florida.