ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — The science of meteorology has come a long way in the past 20 years. We can make much more accurate predictions, but let’s face it, in the Florida summer pattern it’s still very difficult to predict the small variations, such as which town will get the heaviest thunderstorm each day.
- Strong high pressure likely to develop later this month
- High pressure already keeping fronts away from Florida
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We can predict the general amount of storms we’ll get from day to day and sometimes a general favored area due to winds and moisture content.
In the end, though, it’s still nearly impossible to pinpoint exactly where every single storm will pop up. That’s what we refer to as ‘mesoscale’ forecasting.
However, large scale features in the atmosphere are much easier to predict. This is the part of meteorology where we can really pin down in advance what’s coming in the future.
We can see large high pressures evolving or moving around the globe and large scale fluctuations in the jet stream. This is how we are able to predict hotter and colder patterns on the horizon more than a week away.
This is also why the general track forecasting for tropical storms has gotten so much better the past 20 years.
With that in mind, about a week ago we started noticing a trend that a strong High Pressure was likely going to develop across the southeastern U.S. later this month. More and more of our long term guidance is trending in that direction and it’s now becoming a very likely event.
In fact, it’s already kind of started to happen. The past few days have been drier and warmer as high pressure has kept fronts away from Florida.
So what does that mean for our forecast? Well, in general it means a hotter pattern is likely. It can also mean a continuation of drier conditions with relatively low rain chances.
But admittedly, the rain chances have more to do with fluctuations in atmospheric moisture locally. Based on what we’re seeing right now it looks like we’ll have hotter conditions in the Tampa Bay region from mid to late next week going into Memorial Day Weekend.
Many areas will be in the mid 90s for highs and some spots will even reach the upper 90s. So get the pool ready, as you’ll most likely be looking for a place to cool down soon.