NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has updated its forecast today for the heart of the 2019 Hurricane Season.
- NOAA updates prediction on number of named storms
- New forecast bumps numbers of named storms, hurricanes
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Historically, most of the major hurricanes in the Atlantic are from mid-August to mid-October. The government forecasters say that El Nino has now ended in the Pacific and we are in neutral conditions there.
"El Nino typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity but now that it's gone, we could see a busier season ahead," said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.
They have raised their likelihood of an above-normal season to 45 percent (up from 30 percent in the late May outlook). The likelihood of near-normal activity is now 35 percent and a below normal season has dropped to 20 percent.
Final 2019 Forecast:
Named Storms: 10-17 (there have already been two Named Storms)
Hurricanes: 5-9 (there has already been one)
Major Hurricanes: 2-4
On average, the Atlantic hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes. NOAA's hurricane season outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. Landfalls are largely determined by short-term weather patterns, which are only predictable within about a week of a storm potentially reaching a coastline.