This Sunday, two quarterbacks take the field with a combined 23 Pro Bowl selections, five Most Valuable Player awards, and seven Super Bowl titles.

This Sunday will also feature one of the coldest temperatures at kickoff for the entire season. So who has the advantage when the temperatures drop?


What You Need To Know

  • The NFC Championship Game is this Sunday between the Green Bay Packers and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady have plenty of experience in bitterly cold games

  • Temps are expected to be in the mid-to-high 20s at kickoff

First Impressions

Aaron Rodgers waves to spectators after an NFL divisional playoff football game. (AP Photo/Mike Roemer)

At first, you would give the advantage of playing in the cold to Aaron Rodgers. After all, he’s played in Green Bay his entire career. The average January daily high temperature there is 24.3 degrees (1981-2010).

His home field is even nicknamed the ‘Frozen Tundra.’ Meanwhile, Tom Brady has taken his talents to the west coast of Florida, where the average temperature of his home games this season was 77.3 degrees.

Like so many people when they get older, Brady moved to Florida. But before he became a snowbird, Brady played for 19 seasons in New England. He’s actually played in more games below freezing than Rodgers. 

As many Patriots fans (and now Buccaneers fans) will point out, Brady also has a five ring advantage over Rodgers when it comes to Super Bowl victories.

Breaking Down the Stats

When you take a look at each quarterback’s performances in games with temperatures at-or-below freezing, the numbers are very similar. 

Brady has a win percentage of 82.9 compiling a record of 34-7, while Rodgers has a win percentage of 82.4 with his record of 28-6.

Each quarterback has thrown more than 250 yards on average per game. But it’s Rodgers who has a slight edge in all of those categories.

He has a better touchdown-to-interception ratio and his team wins by more points on average. 

Learning From the Past

Rodgers and Brady have squared off only once in a game with below-freezing temperatures. In November of 2014, Brady’s Patriots faced off against the Packers led by Rodgers at Lambeau Field.

In that game, Rodgers got the best of Brady.  

Both quarterbacks threw two touchdowns, but Rodgers threw for nearly 350 yards in the victory.  The Packers won 26-21 in a game where the kickoff temp was 28 degrees. That’s similar to this Sunday’s forecast.

But in a more recent showdown, October 2020, Brady out-dueled Rodgers. The Buccaneers defeated the Packers 38-10 while Brady threw two touchdowns and Rodgers threw two interceptions.

Those conditions were not ideal for Rodgers, 88 degrees and mostly sunny. 

Who Has the Edge?

Lambeau Field is seen as it snows before an NFL football game in December 2016. (AP Photo/Mike Roemer)

Two decorated quarterbacks will lead their teams onto a very cold ‘Frozen Tundra’ this weekend. While the conditions may give a very slight edge statistically to Rodgers, Brady does edge him where it matters… in victories.

Brady is 10-2 in playoff games where the temperature drops below 32 degrees. Rodgers is 5-2. 

While weather is far from the only factor in the game, whoever wins will add to their already impressive career full of accolades and become even more of a legend when playing in the most brutal of conditions.

 

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