A majority of St. Petersburg voters believe that Mayor Bill Foster is doing an average to good job, according to an exclusive Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/WUSF-FM Radio poll.
That's good news for the incumbent mayor, who has a sizable lead among the 810 voters who were polled. When asked who they would vote for if the primary election were held today, 30 percent said Foster, 20 percent said Kathleen Ford and 17 percent said they would vote for Kriseman.
The race is non-partisan, but Foster, a Republican, is running against two Democrats. Democratic consultant Ana Cruz said that will divide the vote and make it nearly impossible for any candidate to get the necessary 51 percent to avoid a runoff.
"I do think it’s headed for a run-off because there are two other folks in the primary that are Democrats that are pulling from the same base of voters," she said. "There's not enough room for Bill Foster to play catch up, so they are gonna head to run-off.”
Republican political analyst Chris Ingram agrees that the St. Petersburg mayoral race is headed toward a run-off between the top two. He predicts one of those will be Foster.
"It looks like Bill Foster is in pretty good shape despite things like the Rays and The Pier issue," Ingram said. "He’s the leader right now.
However, while Foster has a lead in nearly every demographic polled, nearly as many voters - 28 percent - said they don't know who they will be voting for. That's nearly as many voters as said they would vote for him, meaning the undecideds could still tip the election in another direction.
Voters asked about possible runoff match-ups
The voters were then asked about hypothetical runoff match-ups.
First, they were asked who they would vote for if the race were only between Foster and Ford. Foster would win that matchup with 49 percent to Ford's 43 percent.
If the race were between Foster and Kriseman, 49 percent of those polled said they would vote for Foster, while 40 percent said they would vote for Kriseman.
The African-American vote is expected to be critical in the race for City Hall. Of the black voters who were polled, more than half - 51 percent - supported Ford, while 43 percent said they would vote for Foster.
However, when asked about a possible Foster/Kriseman matchup, more than half - 53 percent - of black voters polled said they would support Foster, while 31 percent said they would vote for Kriseman.
Reasons for supporting candidates
Voters were also asked to share their reasons for supporting a particular candidate.
In the case of Foster, 41 percent of those polled said they supported him because of his past record. They thought he has done a good job and that he's done a lot for St. Petersburg.
Foster cited that experience last when he spoke with Bay News 9 last month.
"I have a record and I will stand on that record," he said. "I'll stand behind every decision I have made. I'll take the criticism where it's warranted, but we learned."
Thirteen percent of Foster's supporters said they like him as a candidate and they agree with his policies and views, while 11 percent said they chose him because they either think he's a better choice than other candidates or they are not familiar with the other candidates.
More than a quarter of voters who said they supported Ford said they did so because they like what she stands for and they agree with her views.
Thirteen percent said they particularly like her views regarding the Pier and the proposed design to replace it, the Lens. Ford has been a vocal opponent of the plan to replace the inverted pyramid with the Lens.
"I'm concerned because the citizens of St. Pete feel as though they have been left out," Ford told Bay News 9 last month. "The inverted pyramid is structurally sound. That’s a significant asset to the city of St. Pete. We are not giving the people a right to weigh in on how that gets disposed of."
Supporters of Kriseman also cited his views when discussing their decision to vote for him. Nearly a quarter - 23 percent - of those who said they support him did so because they like him and they like what he stands for.
However, 12 percent of his supporters said they plan to vote for him because they are not satisfied with Foster. Eight percent of Ford's supporters cited the same reason.
The primary election is scheduled for Aug. 27. Voters will also have the opportunity to cast their ballots in several city council races.
Candidate statements
Bay News 9 reached out to the leading three candidates for their responses to this poll:
Kathleen Ford
"Our campaign continues to work hard to get out our message of the need for more fiscal responsibility, where Mr. Foster and his administration have wasted tax dollars, raised taxes and fees while cutting important city services and cutting important city programs like the neighborhood partnership program.
"Increasing taxes and fees while needlessly shuttering The Pier and shutting down 28 businesses putting over 400 people out of work as we are trying to recover from the Great Recession is not prudent. Moreover, if a majority of the citizens vote yes to stop the Lens then Mr. Foster will have wasted another $3.8 million dollars.
"We deserve better government and I and my supporters will continue to work hard to earn every vote."
Mayor Bill Foster
"Polls are great to give you an idea of where you are at a particular time. However, scientific polls don't determine elections, and the only poll we care about occurs on August 27. There are five weeks left before the primary, and thus we have a lot of campaigning to do. Plus, we need to move some undecided voters our way.
"I'm most impressed with the number of voters who feel that the city is going in the right direction. I couldn't agree more. Momentum for the city is everything."
Complete poll results
1. How would you rate Bill Foster's job performance as mayor?
| AGE |
RACE |
GENDER |
|||||
| 18-54 |
55+ |
White |
Black |
Male |
Female |
Total |
|
| Excellent |
9% |
8% |
9% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
9% |
| Good |
27% |
28% |
29% |
22% |
28% |
26% |
27% |
| Average |
35% |
35% |
33% |
40% |
35% |
35% |
35% |
| Not so good |
10% |
13% |
12% |
10% |
8% |
15% |
11% |
| Poor |
15% |
15% |
14% |
14% |
18% |
11% |
14% |
| Not sure/ No opinion |
4% |
3% |
3% |
4% |
3% |
4% |
4% |
2. If the primary election for Mayor of St. Petersburg were held today, which one of these candidates would you vote for?
| AGE |
RACE |
GENDER |
|||||
| 18-54 |
55+ |
White |
Black |
Male |
Female |
Total |
|
| Anthony Cates |
1% |
1% |
** |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
| Paul Congemi |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| Kathleen Ford |
17% |
24% |
19% |
28% |
18% |
21% |
20% |
| Bill Foster |
32% | 27% | 31% | 25% | 35% | 25% | 30% |
| Rick Kriseman |
15% | 20% | 20% | 8% | 16% | 19% | 17% |
| Other |
** | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | ** | ** |
| Don't know |
31% | 23% | 25% | 32% | 25% | 30% | 28% |
| Refused |
4% | 4% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 4% |
** Less than one-half of 1 percent
3. If the race were only between Bill Foster and Kathleen Ford, who would you vote for?
| AGE | RACE | GENDER | |||||
| 18-54 | 55+ | White | Black | Male | Female | Total | |
| Bill Foster | 51% | 47% | 50% | 43% | 54% | 44% | 49% |
| Kathleen Ford | 42% | 43% | 41% | 51% | 41% | 45% | 43% |
| Don't know | 4% | 6% | 6% | 3% | 3% | 6% | 5% |
| Would not vote | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 5% | 3% |
| Refused | 0% | ** | ** | 0% | 1% | ** | ** |
** Less than one-half of 1 percent
4. If the race were only between Bill Foster and Rick Kriseman, who would you vote for?
| AGE | RACE | GENDER | |||||
| 18-54 | 55+ | White | Black | Male | Female | Total | |
| Bill Foster | 52% | 46% | 48% | 53% | 53% | 46% | 49% |
| Rick Kriseman | 37% | 45% | 43% | 31% | 37% | 44% | 40% |
| Don't know | 7% | 6% | 6% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 7% |
| Would not vote | 3% | 2% | 2% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 3% |
| Refused | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | ** | 1% | 1% |
** Less than one-half of 1 percent