Hurricane forecasters at Colorado State University have issued their lowest tropical season forecast ever, predicting just seven named storms to form in the Atlantic Basin in 2015.
The CSU team of William Gray and Phillip Klotzbach released their annual forecast Thursday, saying the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season "will likely have much less activity than the median 1981–2010 season."
———————————————
2015 forecast summary
- 7 named storms
- 3 hurricanes
- 1 major hurricane (category 3 or above)
- VIEW CHART: CSU Hurricane Forecast Accuracy, 1984–2015 ▼
———————————————
Those numbers are notably below-average. From 1981–2010, the Atlantic saw a median number of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.
An "at least" moderate El Niño event is part of the reason why, according to Bay News 9 Chief Meteorologist Mike Clay.
"El Niño is supposed to form this year and it could have a significant impact on lowering the number (of storms) for the hurricane season," Clay said. "But it is important to remember...1992 when Hurricane Andrew hit Florida. That was really the only storm that year."
Andrew was a Category 5 hurricane that devastated South Florida in what would have otherwise been a below-average season. No matter what the forecast is for the upcoming season, it's important to remember that it only takes one storm to make it a bad season.
The forecast from the CSU team comes on the heels of one of the quietest hurricane seasons on record, and the ninth straight season without a major storm to hit Florida. Only eight storms were named in 2014. Six of those became hurricanes, but none made landfall in Florida.
During an El Niño, vertical wind shear increases, which can inhibit hurricane formation. A relatively cool tropical Atlantic also was a factor in the predictions.
Colorado State's forecasters, however, said the expected oncoming El Niño does not seem to have any impact on storms that form in the Gulf of Mexico, where water temperatures are warmer than the Atlantic's main development region.
"It's important to remember (Andrew and years like 1992)," Clay said. "But the overall number of should be down again this year."
The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1 and lasts through Nov. 30.
Gray also announced Thursday he will retire from the Tropical Meteorology Project after 2015. Klotzbach, who has been the forecasts' lead author since 2006, will continue leading the project.