Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is currently grappling with deep polling deficits in most of the swing states that will decide the race for the White House.
However, some Democrats are warning against taking those states, namely Florida, for granted.
- Strategists see parallels between Trump's rise and Gov. Rick Scott's wins in Florida
- Scott benefited from elements that should not factor in Trump's efforts during the general election
America's biggest battleground state is also one that has been won twice by Gov. Rick Scott, in 2010 and 2014. Like Trump, Scott was a wealthy political neophyte able to attract the support of disenfranchised conservative voters.
"Rick Scott won in the same way that Trump has won the nomination, by completely controlling the narrative," said Steve Schale, a Democratic strategist who helped run President Obama's Florida campaigns. "Scott did it by buying it. Trump's done it by earned media. And so, you've got to assume he's going to have a big microphone. He's going to be able to define the election in a lot of ways and it's going to be close."
Scott, however, benefited from higher-than-average Republican midterm election turnout, and even then won by extremely narrow margins. Trump isn't likely to enjoy a comparable tailwind.
The issues at hand in a presidential contest also differ considerably from those in a gubernatorial election. Trump's campaign trail threats to withdraw from NATO and reshape America's role in the Middle East, some Democrats predict, will cost him the support of national security-minded voters.
"When Americans look at choosing a president, they realize that they're doing more than just an executive," said U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL). "They're doing a leader of the free world, and they're electing a person to be commander-in-chief."