Florida state economists this week unveiled an annual budget forecast projecting a $1.3 billion deficit in 2018.
- Forecast lists tax cuts as driving force behind deficit
- Critics say supply-side economic policy failing to deliver results
- Projections meant to guide crafting of next state budget
That figure calls into question the effectiveness of billions of dollars worth of tax cuts championed by Gov. Rick Scott and the legislature's majority Republicans.
Along with swelling public school enrollment and rising Medicaid costs, the forecast lists the tax cuts, which over six years have been heavily weighted to favor corporations, as a driving force behind the looming deficit.
It also projects the state will have a budget surplus of just $7.5 million in the fiscal year that begins next July.
The tax cuts are the centerpiece of Scott's agenda. The governor has predicted that companies would use their tax savings to reinvest in jobs and infrastructure, resulting in more tax revenue than the state would otherwise have seen.
"We've cut taxes 55 times, $5.5 billion, and what you've seen in our state is jobs have come and our revenues have grown," Scott said as recently as last spring.
Critics, however, are seizing on the forecast as evidence that Florida Republicans' adherence to supply-side economic policy is failing to deliver positive results.
"When we have that additional revenue, they say, 'see, the tax cuts that we've made are working,' said Rich Templin, a lobbyist for the Florida AFL-CIO. "When we have a deficit like it looks like we're going to have next year, they say, 'see, we need to cut more services.' They never go back and say, 'maybe those tax cuts were a bad idea.'"
The projections are meant to serve as a guide for lawmakers as they craft the state's next budget.
The incoming Senate president, Sen. Joe Negron (R-Stuart), has already said the numbers could dictate some difficult spending decisions during the 2017 legislative session, including passing up or scaling back further tax cuts.