Hurricane Irma is 700 miles east of the Leeward Island.
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It is a small but powerful hurricane. It is moving west-southwest around a high pressure system in the Atlantic. It will move closest to the northern Leeward Islands early on Wednesday and approach the Turks and Caicos and Southern Bahamas Thursday night into Friday.
Over the weekend, and upper level trough and a cold front will be moving off of the U.S. east coast. The models are indicating that these features will help to steer Irma to the north. Some of the models are showing that Irma will be a larger hurricane at that time. At 6 to 7 days out, it is difficult to be precise in knowing all of the following…
- Exact location of Irma
- Size of Irma
- Intensity of Irma
- The speed of Irma
- How deep the upper level trough will be
- The exact location of the upper level trough and cold front
- The exact location of the high pressure system in the Atlantic
So that is why we cannot say exactly where Irma will be next weekend.
Generally, at this time it looks like the Tampa Bay area will not have the biggest impacts, but our weather will be impacted to some degree.
Irma in the Atlantic could mean a drier than normal forecast.
Irma’s track will shift some with every update. And our next weekend forecast is likely to shift as well.
So, be as prepared as you should in June of every year, the start of hurricane season. And please only rely on information from reputable sources. There will be exaggerated and skewed information on Twitter and Facebook along with fake pictures.
Make sure to watch our Bay News 9 Tropical Updates each hour at :49
• What exactly are the spaghetti plots?
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Remember that the spaghetti model plot does not indicate the strength of a system or even development at all. It only predicts where this broad area of low pressure is expected to go.