Supporters of Florida constitutional Amendment 2 — the medical marijuana initiative — may have a big battle ahead of them in the weeks leading up to Election Day. That's because numbers in News 13's exclusive Florida Decides Poll show backers are backing away from the issue.

We asked 781 likely voters this question:

This fall's ballot includes Amendment 2, which "Allows the medical use of marijuana… as determined by a licensed Florida physician." Do you think you will vote yes or no?

Of the likely voters, 48 percent said they would vote yes, and 44 percent would vote no. The remaining 8 percent is still undecided.

That's a sharp shift from the 58 percent who supported the amendment in News 13's previous Florida Decides Poll, conducted in August.

News 13 Political Analyst Michelle Ertel (R) believes people are starting to actually read the ballot question, research the content, and may be coming to a different conclusion than just reading a headline about medical marijuana.

"The flop is because people are starting to understand what I stated long ago, that this isn't about medical marijuana; it is about legalization," said Ertel.

This was the first time language from the actual amendment was also used in our poll question. Here is how the entire amendment reads:

Allows the medical use of marijuana for individuals with debilitating diseases as determined by a licensed Florida physician. Allows caregivers to assist patients' medical use of marijuana. The Department of Health shall register and regulate centers that produce and distribute marijuana for medical purposes and shall issue identification cards to patients and caregivers. Applies only to Florida law. Does not authorize violations of federal law or any non-medical use, possession or production of marijuana.

"A month ago, people were voting on the concept of medical marijuana. Now, after taking a look at it, they have a problem with the way it is worded, and possibly that it is a constitutional amendment," said Dr. David Colburn, interim director of the Bob Graham Center for Public Service.

Even if the 8 percent who said they didn't know how they would vote all ended up voting yes in November, the measure would still have a difficult time passing. The combined "yes" and "don't know" votes in our Florida Decides Poll add up to 56 percent, falling short of the 60 percent required to pass the amendment.

Plus, according to Colburn, the majority of likely voters who are currently saying they don't know how they will vote in November are leaning toward a "no" vote.

"I think that sometimes we don't give our electorate enough credit, because they believe in something and they hear that it is not true," said Ertel. "I think that, maybe this time, they did go and look a little bit further and look into it."

News 13 Political Analyst Jeremiah Jaspon (D) contributes the shift to a very aggressive "No on 2" campaign.

"The differentiation in the polls is mind boggling," said Jaspon. "To see the numbers come down so dramatically, you can attribute it to the fact that the 'No' crowd is spending money to get the message out."

Staying organized may be an issue for the "Yes on 2" campaign, according to Christopher McCarty, director of the UF Survey Research Center and director of the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

According to McCarty, the Yes camp needs to push for younger voter turnout.

"If the young show up, they would have a profound impact on Amendment 2," said McCarty. "Not only that, they would have a profound impact on the governor's race."

Colburn added Orlando personal injury lawyer John Morgan, the primary backer of Amendment 2, needs to take a backseat from the cameras and limelight and let testimonials tell the story of why medical marijuana should pass.

"Let those who are using medical marijuana because they are sick become the face of the issue," said Colburn.

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Poll Question Index

View complete breakdown of voters polled:

  1. How do you think you will vote on Amendment 2? ▼
  2. Amendment 2 breakdown by Born Again Christians ▼
  3. Amendment 2 breakdown by religious service attendance ▼

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Poll Results

 

This fall's ballot includes Amendment 2, which 'Allows the medical use of marijuana… as determined by a licensed Florida physician.' How do you think you will vote on Amendment 2?

  YES NO Don't Know Refused Answer
ALL 48% 44% 7% 1%
PARTY YES NO Don't Know Refused Answer
Democrats 60% 30% 8% 1%
Republicans 33% 61% 5% 1%
Other 49% 51% . .
Independents 55% 37% 7% 2%
MEDIA MARKET YES NO Don't Know Refused Answer
Fort Myers 42% 56% 3% .
Jacksonville 38% 54% 4% 4%
Miami 55% 37% 6% 3%
Orlando 44% 49% 7% .
Other 49% 39% 12% .
Pensacola 58% 29% 13% .
Tampa Bay 51% 43% 5% 1%
West Palm Beach 45% 43% 12% .
RACE YES NO Don't Know Refused Answer
Other 47% 35% 14% 4%
Black 53% 35% 9% 4%
White 47% 46% 6% 0%
HISPANIC YES NO Don't Know Refused Answer
No 49% 43% 7% 1%
Yes 35% 54% 8% 4%
Don't Know 84% 16% . .
Refused Answer 59% 32% 9% .
GEOGRAPHIC AREA YES NO Don't Know Refused Answer
South 50% 43% 6% 1%
North 45% 46% 8% 1%
Don't Know/Refused 46% 54% . .
AGE GROUP YES NO Don't Know Refused Answer
18–24 63% 32% 2% 4%
25–34 74% 20% 6% .
35–44 55% 35% 8% 2%
45–59 50% 42% 6% 1%
60+ 37% 56% 7% 1%
AGE GROUP II YES NO Don't Know Refused Answer
18–60 57% 35% 6% 1%
61+ 36% 56% 7% 1%
SEX YES NO Don't Know Refused Answer
Female 49% 40% 10% 2%
Male 47% 49% 4% 0%
HOUSEHOLD INCOME YES NO Don't Know Refused Answer
> $150,000 65% 34% 1% .
$100,000 – $150,000 58% 36% 5% 1%
$60,000 – $100,000 54% 40% 6% .
$40,000 – $60,000 47% 43% 8% 2%
$20,000 – $40,000 43% 50% 7% .
< $20,000 56% 40% . 4%
Don't Know 22% 53% 25% .
Refused Answer 33% 54% 11% 2%
RELIGION YES NO Don't Know Refused Answer
Other 49% 43% 9% .
No Affiliation 71% 23% 5% 1%
Muslim . 100% . .
Jewish 66% 26% 9% .
Mormon 38% 62% . .
Catholic 37% 54% 9% 1%
Protestant 42% 51% 6% 0%
Don't Know 100% . . .
Refused Answer 41% 33% 6% 19%
VOTING METHOD YES NO Don't Know Refused Answer
Haven't Decided Yet 54% 36% 9% .
Absentee Ballot 50% 42% 6% 2%
Early Voting 50% 41% 6% 3%
On Election Day 45% 48% 7% 0%
Not Planning to Vote . 100% . .
Don't Know 52% 48% . .
Refused Answer . 100% . .

 

Amendment 2 breakdown by Born Again Christians

Asked only of protestants: Do you identify yourself as a Born Again or Evangelical Christian?

  YES on 2 NO on 2 Don't Know Refused Answer
ALL PROTESTANTS 42% 51% 6% 0%
Born Again Christian? YES on 2 NO on 2 Don't Know Refused Answer
Yes 48% 46% 6% .
No 40% 54% 6% 1%
Don't Know 14% 76% 10% .
Refused Answer 67% . 33% .

 

Amendment 2 breakdown by religious service attendance

Asked of all voters polled: Apart from occasional weddings, baptisms, or funerals, how often do you attend religious services?

  YES on 2 NO on 2 Don't Know Refused Answer
ALL 48% 44% 7% 1%
Religious Attendance YES on 2 NO on 2 Don't Know Refused Answer
Never 72% 24% 4% 0%
A few times a year 54% 37% 8% 1%
Once or twice a month 44% 49% 6% 1%
Almost every week 35% 59% 6% .
Every week 27% 63% 10% 1%
Don't know 34% 66% . .
Refused Answer 35% 48% 4% 13%

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About the Poll

The telephone survey of 781 registered Florida voters — all likely to vote in the November election — was conducted Oct. 7–12 for the Tampa Bay Times, Bay News 9 and News 13 by the University of Florida's Bob Graham Center for Public Service and Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

The poll, which included respondents using land lines and cell phones, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. Results were weighted by age, party registration and media market, thus allowing the results to mirror the distribution in the Florida Voter File.

NOTE: Figures may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.