Though Saturday brought many changes to Tropical Storm Isaac's potential impact on the state of Florida, Sunday could be the most important day for determining where the storm will actually go and how intense it could get as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico.

The changes seen Saturday were enough for the first day of the Republican National Convention on Monday to be effectively canceled and Gov. Rick Scott to cancel all of his RNC activities to focus on Isaac preparations.

According to Bay News 9 Meteorologist Diane Kacmarik said the latest forecast track has Isaac moving farther west again, possibly making landfall somewhere between Louisiana and the Florida panhandle. "But, again, don't put too much focus on the exact forecast track, as it could very easily shift back toward us again as it moves to the northwest," Kacmarik said Saturday night.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from Bonita Beach in the Naples area up to Tarpon Springs in the Tampa Bay area. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect from Tarpon Springs north in the Bay area. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Bonita Beach and south to Ocean Reef, including the Keys.

A Watch was issued just before 11 a.m. Saturday for Tarpon Springs south to the Naples area, but was extended through Pasco, Hernando and Citrus Counties in the 5 p.m. advisory; it extended all the way up to the Suwanee River. In the 11 p.m. advisory, the Tropical Storm Warning was enacted from Tarpon Springs and south, and the Watch was moved up to Indian Pass to the north of the Bay area.

"Believe it or not, though, for the first time in many days, we are not in the cone," Bay News 9 Meteorologist Brian McClure said at the 5 p.m. advisory. "But don't read too much into that, as the slightest shift back to the right could put it back in our general path again." McClure mentioned the uncertainty that remained before Hurricane Charley made an abrupt turn and slammed into Charlotte County in 2004, when many thought it was headed for the Bay area.

At 11 p.m., Isaac was still moving along the northern coast of eastern Cuba, with maximum sustained winds still near 60 mph, and was moving northwest at 17 mph. "Isaac is weaker than Friday night -- as expected due to interaction with Haiti & Cuba -- but it’s holding its own and has a good chance of strengthening Sunday evening into Monday as it heads for the Gulf."

Florida and Bay area officials are already preparing for the potential impacts of Isaac. The Port of Tampa will close from 3 a.m. Sunday until further notice, and at the Tallahassee level, Gov. Rick Scott signed an executive order declaring a statewide state of emergency. In the Bay area, Pasco, Manatee, Hernando, Hillsborough and Sarasota Counties have also declared local states of emergency. Manatee and Sarasota Counties have also canceled school for Monday. As of early Saturday evening, all other counties are planning to remain open.

Over the next two days, Isaac is expected to make its way away from Cuba and possibly as a Category 1 hurricane move into the Florida Keys before heading into the Gulf of Mexico. Once in the Gulf, it could strengthen even further into a possible Category 2 hurricane near Tampa and move somewhere into the Florida Panhandle over to Louisiana.

Isaac has the potential to strengthen rapidly Monday into Tuesday in the Gulf due to warm waters and lack of wind shear. "Hopefully it will stay well west, but then all eyes will be on where does it make landfall?" McClure said. "The thinking is that a front passing by to its north will be enough to pull it northward toward the north central Gulf. If the front is stronger it could even move North or Northeast -- which wouldn’t be good for us. If the front is weak, it will just move away from us."

McClure said the Bay area can expect tropical storm conditions, especially along coastal areas, Monday. This could also result in a storm surge coming in from the south to southwest and surf and water levels could be 3 to 5 feet above normal. "Therefore, low lying areas near the coast, rivers and inlets, and Tampa Bay, need to assume water levels will rise with the potential for flooding. Then we might also have to worry about fresh water flooding if we get heavy rain."

According to Bay News 9 Chief Meteorologist Mike Clay, there are already reports in the Keys of 50- to 60-mph gusts. "That's associated with an upper-level low," Clay said. "That's the weakness we've been talking about for about four days. The tropical system is going to follow the upper-level low, and once it gets to Florida, it should begin to have less wind shear and an environment more favorable to strengthening."

Computer models that plot the chances for high winds indicates that the Bay area has a 50 to 60 percent chance of getting tropical force winds Sunday going into Monday, Clay said.

What seems almost certain is that the Bay area will get some taste of Isaac. "We are very confident our weather is going to start to go downhill around here, perhaps as early as late Sunday, but more likely into Monday and then Tuesday," Bay News 9 Meteorologist Josh Linker said earlier Saturday. "A few miles in difference as to where this ends up would make a world of difference for the actual weather conditions around here. Right now, it should stay far enough offshore, at least with the current thinking, to avoid a direct hurricane-type of impact around here."

Computer models showing the projected path vary somewhat. The most eastern model shows the storm making landfall in southeast Florida and crossing the state east to northwest and exiting back int the gulf north of the Bay area. The western-most path shows the storm coming up through the Mississippi.

"Somewhere where this is going, somebody is going to get a tremendous amount of rainfall," Clay said.

Clay notes that the majority of computer models show the storm coming up through the Gulf. He said it's possible to storm could have two landfalls in Florida - one in the southern part of the state and another in the panhandle.

Meanwhile, Isaac swept across Haiti's southern peninsula early today, dousing a capital city prone to flooding and areas of the poor nation still trying to recover from the terrible 2010 earthquake. Rocks, mud and other debris littered the streets of Port-au-Prince today, and the city was on high alert for potential flooding. But the worst of the storm has hit far from the capital.

Forecasters said Isaac could dump as much as eight to 12 inches and even up to 20 inches on Hispaniola, which is shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic, as well as produce a storm surge of up to three feet. Cuba declared a state of alert Friday for six eastern provinces, according to a Civil Defense announcement read on the afternoon news, and five central provinces were put on preliminary watch. Vacationers in tourist installations of those regions were evacuated.

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Watches and Warnings

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for:

  • Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas
  • West coast of Florida, from Bonita Beach southward to Ocean Reef
  • Florida Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for:

  • Haiti
  • Florida east coast, from Golden Beach southward to Ocean Reef
  • Andros Islands in the Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:

  • The Florida east coast, from Sebastian Inlet to Ocean Reef
  • The Florida west coast, from Bonita Beach to Tarpon Springs / Tampa Bay
  • Dominican Republic
  • Haiti
  • Cuban provinces of Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Granma, Holguin, Santiago de Cuba and Guantanamo
  • The Bahamas
  • Turks and Caicos Islands
  • Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:

  • Florida west coast from Tarpon Springs to Indian Pass
  • Florida east coast north of Jupiter Inlet to Flagler Beach
  • Cuban provinces of Matanzas and Cienfuegos

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BAY NEWS 9 RADIO PARTNERS

In the event that Tropical Storm Isaac hits the Tampa Bay area, you will be able to get information from Bay News 9 meteorologists on the radio through one of Bay News 9's partner radio stations. These stations include: