As Tropical Storm Isaac continues a path that will likely take it near or over Florida, we will keep you up-to-date of the main updates and tidbits on the storm in our LIVE Blog below:
Wednesday, Aug. 22
11:45 p.m.
Isaac looks like it may be strengthening. As of 11 pm , no change in intensity. A possible Florida threat Monday. #RNCTAMPA
11:15 p.m.
UPDATE: Latest forecast path would put Isaac near Bay area Monday - FULL REPORT
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Josh Linker:
The latest American computer forecast model (GFS) is determined to move a strengthening storm quickly out of the islands toward Florida.
The European model (ECMWF) more slowly swings a significantly strengthening storm north of Cuba into the Gulf and toward the northern Gulf coast.
Traditionally the most accurate forecast is a compromise between these two and other models. A weakness in the sub-tropical high could bring Isaac up toward Florida by the end of the weekend and early next week. Conditions appear to be very favorable for strengthening by that time.
Wherever the storm goes over the next week, Clay and Linker said it is important not to focus on the storm icon's exact position or the center line, but rather the cone. "Remember, the average error on the forecast track at Day 5 is 225 miles and there is no skill in intensity forecasting out past a day or two."
10:55 p.m.
Analyzing recon and satellite data while waiting for 11 pm advisory. Will have a live update at 10:59 on Bay News 9.
10:30 p.m.
Waiting for the 11 p.m. advanced update on Isaac.
9:25 p.m.
From NOAA P-3 in Isaac: The circulation doesn't extend over a deep layer. There is strong easterly flow @ 4-5 km altitude.
8:25 p.m.
NOAA's high alt G-IV jet will leave MacDill 1pm Thu to fly north of Isaac to sample the strength of the high over the Atl.
7:50 p.m.
At the upcoming 8 p.m. advisory: Isaac's forecast path has it near the Bay area around Monday, but the track is in no way set in stone - FULL REPORT
7:31 p.m.
The latest satellite image of Tropical Storm Isaac: http://goo.gl/a1YhO
7:10 p.m.
Tropical Storm Isaac's latest forecast "yellow cone of uncertainty" shifted slightly to the west at the 5 p.m. advisory, putting the Bay area in the general line of the storm sometime early next week.
Thought the latest forecast track for Isaac has the system moving into the Bay area, the Weather Experts stressed the actual path could be very different. -- FULL REPORT
7 p.m.
There are three likely scenarios for Isaac's path as of Wednesday night, according to Mike Clay:
- If the high pressure ridge in the Atlantic moves east quicker, Isaac might move to the east of Florida.
- If it breaks down, Isaac will flow the weakness in the upper levels and come up over Florida.
- If the ridge of high pressure holds just strong enough, Isaac might head more west into the Central Gulf.
6:18 p.m.
Mike Clay:
A NOAA plane from MacDill just finished its first pass through center of Isaac. Found it to be disorganized and fairly weak.
6:10 p.m.
Mike Clay:
It is important not to focus too much on the middle of the cone or the icons/intensity. Avg error at Day 5 is 225 miles.
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Gov. Rick Scott issued a statement on Tropical Storm Isaac on Wednesday:
"Although Tropical Storm Isaac is still far from Florida’s shores, we are closely tracking the potential for the storm to impact part or all of the state, including the Tampa Bay region during the Republican National Convention.
"Florida’s state emergency management team and local emergency teams have been working closely with convention officials and have been planning for this event for more than a year, and the possibility of a hurricane hitting the convention has been part of that planning process."
11 a.m.
The chances that Isaac, which is churning in the Atlantic Ocean toward the Caribbean Sea, will hit the Bay area still remain small.
But if it did strike as a hurricane, the impact would be enormous.
And with thousands of extra visitors in the area for the convention, community leaders would have the added responsibility of assuring their safety. -- Buckhorn to CNN: 'We're prepared to call it off' if needed